VIDEO – The number of unemployed in category A has decreased by 67.100 registered. A decline related to the slight economic recovery.
Good news. After the slap of the month of August, the unemployment figures in September are again heading in the right direction. The number of students enrolled in category A (no activity) to Pole employment fell 67.100 in France, and 66.300 only be for the metropolis, to $ 3,746 million people. Such reflux had never been registered since the beginning of the quinquennium. You need to go back to 1996 to find a movement so strong.
“This is the third consecutive quarter of decline, which had not been noticed since the beginning of 2008″
The number of job seekers in categories B and C, who perform menial jobs, on the other hand has continued to rise in September: 28.300 people (in metropolitan France) in a month. Nevertheless, the overall picture is positive: if we take into account all of the categories A, B and C, the decrease concerns 39.100 people in September in France. In total, 5.7 million people pointed as well to Pôle emploi, in these three categories, at the end of September. “This is the third consecutive quarter of decline, which had not been noticed since the beginning of 2008,” commented, Guyana, Myriam El Khomri, minister of Labour. “Thus, confirming a trend observed since the beginning of the year (…). These results are the fruit of the action undertaken by the government through the pact of responsibility (…). The battle is not over,” said François Hollande on his account Facebook. On the bottom, various factors explain this impressive rebound. The first is th e effect of the pendulum. After the exceptional air hole in August (+ 52.400 job seekers in category A), due to one-off factors, a rebalancing was expected in September.
The second reason is more fundamental: the creation of jobs are better off in France, thanks to the slight recovery of the economy. According to the latest figures from Insee from June 2015 to June 2016, 143.300 jobs were created in the private sector in metropolitan France. A number sufficient to absorb the growth of the active population and, therefore, to stabilize or slightly reduce – unemployment. The trend is confirmed by the Acoss, the body collector of social Security contributions. According to him, the hiring of more than a month have grown from 2.9 % in the third quarter. On the other hand, the plan to 500,000 training for the unemployed has had little influence in September, the entries in the sessions being offset by the outputs.
“This decline in September was not in any way confirm a trend, since about a year the unemployment categories A, B and C is up 1%”
Outlook negative according to the Unédic
Since the beginning of the year, the trend is positive, with a decrease of 94.100 seekers emploien category Has in the whole of France. The balance sheet of the quinquennium, however, remains dark. The ministry of Labour lists 617 000 additional unemployed persons in category A since the election of François Hollande. “This decline in September was not in any way confirm a trend, since about a year the unemployment categories A, B and C is up 1%,” stresses Gérard Cherpion, member of parliament (LR) of the Vosges. The government prefers, to him, to put forth another piece of information: the number of under 25 years in class A is passéen septembresous the bar 501.000 registered in may 2012. Still, this decline is due to the explosion of supported employment.
In September, the manager of the unemployment insurance system, Unedic, has unveiled its estimates on the evolution of unemployment. It expects a decline of 124.000 category A unemployed in 2016. If one relies on, by the end of the year, the number of job seekers should, therefore, be even lower than 30,000. The result is less pleasing. According to the Unedic, the lists of Pole employment grossiraient 79,000 new entrants into class A the next year. And the situation would continue to deteriorate in 2018 and 2019. A pessimism justified by the growth forecasts of economists, who predict a relapse of the activity in the years to come…