While we expected a 0.3% growth in our country was nil in Q2 2015. Despite the creation of thousands of jobs, mainly in the commercial sector, weak household consumption did not favor a true recovery.
According to INSEE estimates published yesterday, the growth has not increased in Q2 2015 0.0%, in terms of stagnation, difficult do better. If they are not worrying, these figures still represent a slight disappointment for the government, which forecasts were slightly more optimistic.
An increase of 0.3%, this is the hoped for Finance Minister Michel Sapin. INSEE and the Banque de France also expected a similar increase. Economists were themselves hardly less confident, announcing an increase by 0.2%. Despite the slight disappointment engendered by the figures yesterday, the target of 1% growth at the end of the year is however not questioned for Michel Sapin. “We had gone very, very high in Q1 and continued to remain at this high level in the second. Beyond jolts from one quarter to the other, France is returning to work, France is growing recovery. “
France is mainly based on the good 1st quarter results 2015, with an increase of 0.7% GDP. Good results which explained among other by a net return to form consumption (+ 0.9%). However, the traditional engine of French growth was not at the rendezvous in the second quarter. The less fuel prices and the removal of the first tranche of income tax, which will benefit some households, should nevertheless allow the consumer to leave in the coming months.
27,000 Merchants jobs created
The growth remaining sluggish, the Government welcomed the creation of 27,000 jobs in the commercial sector, mainly due to services and the interim. Never as many jobs had been created in one quarter since early 2011.
If the production of goods and services remains stable and if exports are rising again, business investment has slowed him . A very bad thing because it is this factor, according to economists, that would really set France in a sustainable recovery. For the moment, the relative recovery of the French economy is mainly by external factors, the decline of the euro and interest rates coupled with that of oil prices.
If all the lights are not green, the Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, present yesterday at Avignon, continues to show optimism without limits. For him, France should “exceed” 1% growth in late 2015 and it is still above. “We must finish at an annual rate of 1.5% at that level, we can reduce unemployment.”
Announcing the upcoming implementation of reforms around the labor market, in As part of the second Macron law, Manuel Valls concluded by this prophecy: “The growth will intensify in 2016, I do not doubt for one moment”
France penalizes the euro area
The growth of the euro area grew by only 0.3% in Q2 2015, according to Eurostat figures. A slowdown is due to the underperformance against France, but also by the results of Germany, worse than hoped. In the other countries with the single currency, the picture is very mixed. If there is a robust recovery in Spain (+ 1%), Finland recorded a further decline of 0.4%. The Netherlands and Italy have very modest scores and whether Greece has increased 0.8%, it is primarily because the Greeks have emptied their bank accounts for fear of a possible Grexit. If the Greek crisis and the slowdown of the Chinese economy have not had the feared impact forecasts leave little hope for an acceleration of the recovery in Europe by the end of the year.
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