Friday, August 14, 2015

Growth: Manuel Valls, “these figures encourage us to stay the course” – Le Figaro

VIDEO – INSEE published on Friday a first estimate of French growth to a level zero, well below the 0.3% expected. “The assumption of the government of a 1% growth for 2015 is confirmed,” has yet estimated the Prime Minister Manuel Valls.

After a rebound of 0.7% growth in the first quarter, France saw its growth drop to 0%, according to a first estimate of INSEE. A figure well below expectations: the most pessimistic forecast a growth of 0.3%. Most importantly, significantly lower than that published by Germany whose growth rose 0.4% in the second quarter (against 0.3% in the first quarter), according to the first estimate of the German Statistical Office. And, although the consensus expected 0.5%. Growth in the euro area it slowed slightly in the second quarter to 0.3% against 0.4% the previous quarter, Eurostat said the EU office in a first estimate. Analysts expected 0.4%.

Yet zero growth “reinforces our goal” of a 1% growth in 2015, ensures the Finance Minister Michel Sapin. “After a very dynamic first quarter, the level of activity continues. A mid-year, the growth overhang is 0.8%, which confirms our target of 1% for 2015, said Michel Sapin. The acceleration in exports and a recovery in investment are proof that our economic policy is bearing fruit and that we were right to focus on business support. We must stay the course, “he added in a statement sent to Reuters.

The reason: the sharp slowdown in consumer spending in the second quarter, 0.9% in the first quarter to + 0.1% between April and June. Proof that after a strong start to the year, the French economy is unable to keep the same pace. Same-side business investment has also slowed: + 0.2% after + 0.6% in the first quarter. Good point however for foreign trade contributed positively to GDP growth (0.3 points after -0.3), weighed down by changes in inventories (-0.4 point). At 11:00, the euro zone will publish also its growth rate in the second quarter.

Anyway, this underperformance against France, one of the main economic drivers of the Europe is far from reassuring, while other countries in the euro zone must, in turn, publish their growth rate in the late morning.

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