Appearing dramatically, by surprise, looking serious on tv screens at 1 am on the night of Friday 26 to Saturday, June 27, and lasts for a short five-minute allocation, the Greek Prime Minister of the radical left, Alexis Tsipras, brutally upped the ante in an attempt to extricate themselves from a deadly political trap.
What is the position of Tsipras?
Voted on an anti-austerity program after more than five years of severe recession, the head of government and the far-left Syriza party announced a referendum on July 5 next on the proposals of creditors (EU and IMF) which provide new austerity measures. Even before an agreement is concluded. Denouncing the “ultimatum” proposals “that undermine the revival of Greek society and the economy”, “humiliation of an entire people,” Prime Minister trend “eurocommuniste reformer” has fairly clear call to vote “no” to offers of creditors, without saying the words.
A referendum on keeping the euro?
The Eurogroup will meet Saturday in Brussels for a “meeting last chance.” In the best, but probably less likely, Alexis Tsipras, who has shown signs that he would not close all the doors, play a last stroke of liar’s poker, with, for this surprise announcement, the pressure on Creditors on the eve of the meeting presented as “decisive.” Creditor side, some did not exclude a plan “B”, that is to say the continuation of funding for Greece, despite the absence of agreement. Theoretically, Athens, whose coffers are empty, must reimburse the end of June a loan of 1.6 billion euros and the IMF needs an agreement with its creditors to obtain new credit. Otherwise, it’s probably bankrupt and possibly leaving the euro.
But whatever the “arrangements” last minute, Greece will face the question of whether it accepts the rules of the Eurozone, that is to say measures of fiscal orthodoxy, therefore, in the Greek case, austerity or if it prefers to leave the single currency. The referendum on the agreement is therefore likely to turn into a vote for or against maintaining the euro.
The end of an ambiguity?
Alexis Tsipras was elected on a “misunderstanding”, skilfully maintained ambiguity, which comes to an end today, the promise of the end of the austerity measures and maintaining the euro. By accepting itself an agreement with creditors, the first he betrayed his promises. By refusing, he risked betraying the second. Political suicide. This suicide seemed every day more and more certain, as the majority of his party, meeting of permanent crisis, began to rock against a deal.
Although it concluded with creditors, Tsipras risked be disowned in Parliament, especially as its ally, the sovereignist party Independent Greeks, swore to defect if taxes were increased on the Greek islands. While deputies two opposition parties, the Socialist Party (PASOK) and To Potami (River centrist) that promised to rescue an agreement were probably not numerous enough to offset the sling in Syriza.
At the announcement of the referendum, some Greeks went withdraw a maximum of euros from cash machines in anticipation of a possible return to the drachma, even if we did not attend a “run bank” (bank run). However, since the election of Syriza withdrawals are regular and massive.
Schizophrenia
The referendum results are difficult to predict. In theory, although it is disapproved by Alexis Tsipras and Syriza, which, albeit declining, remain popular, however, an agreement with creditors custody chances of being approved. Because the Greeks are very attached to the euro (between 60 and 80%, according to surveys). But since the crisis, the popularity of the single currency tends to crumble and the price seems every day more heavy. Although the scenarios of a euro exit and return to drachma suggest that the situation would be even worse … A former prime minister of Greece estimated that direct returning “to govern a madhouse.” The referendum could be a way out of schizophrenia.
Jean-Baptiste Naudet
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