Greek crisis: she is the reason France displayed his optimism? – L’Express

On Tuesday, in Athens and throughout the country, it’s payday, but the Hellenic banks lowered their curtains. With the introduction of capital controls yesterday, a new week has begun in Greece. After the government’s decision to suspend the negotiations with creditors, the continent is now suspended from the result of the referendum announced by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Europe, she has left the negotiating leaving behind a door ajar pointedly. But it was again France who demonstrates the most obvious optimism. “There are still negotiating margins,” there are only “the last centimeters to cross to reach an agreement”, assured the European Commissioner Pierre Moscovici yesterday morning on RTL.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Michel Sapin, angry with Tsipras, but questioned at the same time on the antenna of France Inter still wanted to believe that “the place of Greece is in the euro” . As for Francois Hollande, he sought to reassure all directions. “France is completely [and still] available for that dialogue can resume now [or] tomorrow. But today, there is the possibility of an agreement. Tomorrow it will depend on the response of the Greek referendum proposed to them. ” In case of refusal of the Greek people, do not panic: “The French economy is more robust than four years ago, and she has nothing to fear of what might happen,” the head of the defuses State. Yet following the events as they are emerging, is it likely to reassure us?

Francois Hollande just outside the small board on Greece June 29, 2015 at the Elysee Palace in Paris

afp.com/ALAIN JOCARD

• Are negotiations irretrievably broken?

They are de facto since the announcement of the referendum on the night of June 29 An ad that has taken everyone by surprise and whose legend has it that even Greek negotiators, then open arm wrestling in Brussels will have read that on Twitter by visiting their smartphone. This does not prevent many European politicians leading, Jean-Claude Juncker and Merkel at the head, to call a compromise while only a few hours before the official deadline of the discussions. But all these statements are intended more to blame for the failure of the Greek government rather than convince him to go back. 72 hours after his statements, it is hard to imagine Alexis Tsipras will deny doing reverse. On Sunday, Interior Minister Nikos Voutsis has also judged “impossible” that the government “gives up the referendum.” Europeans want the negotiations to continue (without Tsipras) in case of victory of “yes dream. Tsipras resume, but in a strong position, in case of victory of” no. “

• Greece she will soon default this Tuesday, June 30?

If June 30 was the deadline of the discussions is that, that date expires on next Greek repayment: a loan of 1.5 billion euros to the IMF But nothing says that Athens has the means to pay the government of Alexis Tsipras argues moreover, since.. several weeks, he can not. If the transfer does not arrive in time, Greece would not however be immediately in default, but simply “backward”. The statutes of the IMF give the institution the power to delay by several months a formal default. Greece will have to rely on his good will.

• What are the next Greek deadlines?

The short Greek debt beyond 2050 and each month new deadlines succeed. “The next step is the refund, on 20 July, from 3.5 billion euros at the European Central Bank and, most likely, Greece does not have the means to honor this commitment,” says Director of economic research at Natixis Philippe Waechter. Meanwhile, the Greeks could have argued for an exit from the euro zone. “Clearly, the crucial step is [that of] July 5,” still believes the economist. It is on this date that the referendum be held by Tsipras announced.

• What will bring the referendum?

No one knew on Monday, what are the exact terms of the question sent by the Greek government to its citizens. Just Tsipras he referred to a question concerning “the signing of the agreement” proposed by the European Commission. The subject is the subject of bitter debate in Greece on Monday. “Voting on a proposal that does not exist? It’s surrealism in its purest form!” Said one member of the opposition well summarizing the general feeling in its ranks. For his part, former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras was indignant that we can to vote “on a working document”. But whatever the terms of the referendum, watermark, the challenge for the country is that of maintaining it or not in the euro area.

• What are the consequences in case of victory of “yes”?

A victory of “yes” probably mean a reopening immediate negotiations. But “the matter will [then] know who will sign the troika,” notes Philippe Waechter. Neither Alexis Tsipras, nor his government politically survive a “yes” resounding, while they are campaigning for “no.” But their resignation, causing new elections would delay the conclusion of an agreement and weaken a little the Greek economy.

• A victory for the “no” Sunday is it necessarily mean Grexit?

“no” in the referendum on the proposals of creditors would be “a no to Europe,” warned Monday the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, calling to vote “yes” and roundly criticizing the attitude of Alexis Tsipras. This is also what was said Michel Sapin, Hollande, albeit with less vehemence. Such a scenario very likely mark an exit from the euro and “a change of currency” accompanied by a devaluation. In such a case, “the situation would quickly become problematic in Greece,” warns Philippe Waechter who fears “a significant political instability” and predicts an equally significant decline “in compensation and pensions, especially in the public sector” . In other words, for Greece, anti-austerity cure Tsipras could prove worse than the disease.

For Europe, the political cost could easily exceed the financial cost of a Grexit. A feeling summed Monday by Merkel for whom “if the euro fails, Europe fails.” “If we lose the ability to compromise, then Europe is lost”, considered the German chancellor before the Conservatives. After Greece, the fear of Europeans is to see the Union disintegrate while Europhobia progress and nationalism on the continent.

• To what extent is it exposed France?

A Greek default would cost a whopping 43 billion euros to France. She is behind Germany (57 billion) and ahead of Italy (34 billion), the second Athens creditor in Europe. The sum represents almost two percentage points of GDP for a French country itself at odds with its debt and budget deficit. But the hexagonal banking system is a priori most exposed to a Greek bankruptcy. And the maturity of the receivables (2,041 respectively for bilateral loans, and in 2054 for the contribution to stability funds) will allow the economy to spread the impact of a Greek default on public finances. Unless the Grexit threatening not act as a new Lehman Brothers, the investment bank name whose bankruptcy had launched the subprime crisis, destroying economic, fragile recovery in France and in the euro area.