Saturday, February 21, 2015

Greek capitulation –

Greek capitulation –

Unlike ranting, the Greek government has come to accept the conditions of the troika. A hard lesson for the extreme left as populist extreme right.

The German daily Bild tells this incredible story. The Greek government has sent a letter to Brussels, Thursday 19 February, which listed its new proposals in the difficult negotiations with its partners, the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF. The famous troika which the Greek government did not want to hear about it! A letter of surrender conditionally Athens agrees to comply with all of the troika that ask but that is temporary, there will be “ inflections in veni r”. Germany soon this known missive replied dryly: it is “nein”. Still blur this “coming”. Berlin only sign a ultra-precise tuning. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, insulted by his Greek counterpart, Yanis Varoufakis he can not stand, while sticking to an inflexible position. Greece must return to the prior legislative election situation in the aid program signed by his predecessor. Point. And this is the agreement that was finally reac hed Friday, February 20 despite Athens comunication attempts to save face.

The fault of the Post!

Bild said that the Greeks, embarrassed by this new reference into the ropes by Germany, then explained that the letter was … not good, that there had been a mail error and a new letter, good, more in line with German demands, had to leave! The fault of the Post! Really childish it hard to believe

But this story, false or true, says two things. This has become the German hysteria against the Greeks of SYRIZA, by dint of being insulted constantly compared to Nazis and called “payable” always “to pay” for a country that is constantly cheating and continues to diddle with European disciplines. I saw this anger rising in Germany, but I did not think she had reached that level. In a Union, we should insult any of its partners. The Greeks are paying the price.

The second lesson comes from the incredible unpreparedness of Syriza. This populist party claimed to govern his country on a line opposite to that of his predecessors since the beginning of the debt crisis in 2010. He believed he had the way of a solution by growth, despite the signed European commitments, despite the situation financial and budgetary dependence of the country. He believed that the Greek people have voted, all the other peoples of Europe, is going to rise to reach either would accept the new program valiant Tsipras government.

naivety and amateurism

It was a complete naivety, a total disregard of European laws, a serious error on the balance of power and, above all, we must insist on this point: a claim that there is a way ” another way “, another policy, much better, less painful, easy even. Which One? “Just refuse austerity”, you simply have to go back, raise wages and pensions, rehire staff, practice all-out recovery policy.

The trouble comes not from finding. It is not wrong the finding, at least in appearance: austerity in Greece was too strong, it caused a recession that the country derives all budget targets. There is one aspect that works: competitiveness is restored (the external accounts improved), it is aimed that the Troika partners, as happened in Spain or Ireland. But as the productive base in Greece is very low, this rigor “German” wears too thin fruit while social suffering is too great. So in effect the balance is not favorable to the austerity solution, many recognize the United States and Europe. We must try to marry rigor and growth.

From there, Alexis Tsipras thought it was played, the partners would put pressure on Berlin and the stimulus package would be accepted. But everything fell apart for lack of preparation and submission.

The Greek finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, spent his time in the big guy in meetings, on TV and on social networks without have specific, concrete program, who can play with finely past commitments, and is acceptable. He has continued to go from a vague plan an impossible plan to the diddle minute behind the error of the post! (Which he denied).


His country is paying its strong bluster and total incompetence. But this is no coincidence. Populist appeal to economists at the margin, say alternative. Not all are of course without interest. But many are in the illusion of a “know.” Those of yesterday ânonnaient a sanctimonious preaching neo-Marxist base. People today have realized the need to show knowledge of the great contemporary reality, one that counts: finance. The economy has become a creative science. They swing obscure propositions: the collateralized obligations on growth, for example. We understand nothing here but throws. Yanis Varoukakis is one of those, these impostors gurus who spend college to college, who have successful blogs for alternative in search of another policy. There are plenty on the net, they invested populist parties where there was a place vacated by realists economists, these parties were waiting to be enthusiastic about their magical thinking.

Yanis Varoufakis has had empapahouter Alexis Tsipras and the other leaders of Syriza, just as traders mathematicians invent toxic products for sale in their direction. Mirages, false solutions, ideas also learned that hollow.

We say that Greece is humiliated by Germany. That other governments are cowards. That in the great ideological war, the Social Democrats wanted to punish the far left. That “think” has once again won because “global elites” who have conspired against democracy and the people. All this is false. Blandly wrong. Greece had not already lost. She could get a substantial relaxation of its aid program. Germany could, once again, to accept much of what she rejects out. But his luck was marred by arrogance and ignorance.

A capitulation by step

Tsipras government found itself totally disarmed in front of the flat reality. He had to capitulate in stages, until the meeting of the Euro-group on Friday 20 February. He must first recognize that he will pay his debt, and agree to talk to the hated Troika and abandon its social program “unilateral”, agree to stay in his predecessor assistance plan and finally s commit to reforms. He still has the weekend to detailing what it saves social gifts he announced, in exchange he will provide a list of reforms he agrees but he does it under tight control of Berlin.

From its promises, there is nothing left. I thought “disappointments come this fall,” mistake again. The planet is still running faster than we think.

The lesson for populist is severe. Their starting point is sometimes good, by the excess of austerity in Greece. But instead of working detailed solutions, applicable, they darken in a magic bad gurus told them possible. There are always alternatives, there is no single solution, but we must recognize that the world is complex and interdependent and that the outcomes are in work, pragmatism and humility. That must not promise that efforts are preventable. But then, the success of populist just what they sell dreams … That their constituents are watching what sadly happened in Greece.


No comments:

Post a Comment