France: confirmed return without much future growth in Q3
(synthesis)
Paris (awp / afp) – INSEE confirmed Tuesday a growth of 0.3% in France third quarter, a modest increase which is accompanied by a weak trend in consumption and a stagnation of business investment, bleak for the fourth quarter.
The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies has left unchanged estimates he had given on 14 November, also confirming a decrease of 0.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter from the previous quarter, at constant prices and adjusted seasonally and working-day.
The INSEE estimated as 0.3% (against 0.4% previously) the carryover for 2014 to late September, that is, -dire growth over the year if the activity had stagnated in the fourth quarter.
One hypothesis is that of Philippe Waechter, director of economic research at Natixis Asset Management and Dominique Barbet, economist at BNP Paribas.
“With an increasing consumption of 0.4% in November, after falling 0.8% in October, it will not make a very strong sales in the fourth quarter. We will have a growth around zero and thus an overall figure of 0.3% over the year, “said Mr. Waechter.
” With half mast consumption in 2015 does not look under auspiciously, “added Mr. Barbet, pessimistic for another component of GDP: Investment
.” The margins of companies, which had fallen very low still very low, “he said in an allusion to the rise “relatively insignificant” a tenth of a point of the margin rate, defined as the ratio between the gross operating surplus of non-financial companies and added value, which stood at 29.5% in the third quarter.
OIL PRICES, THE KEY ELEMENT
“The margin like that it has not seen since 1986,” recalls -t he, judging possible increase in the fourth quarter due to lower oil prices. “But is that going to be enough to start investing? I do not believe: the investment is initially a final demand issue I am very optimistic about the effect oil, the key element is there, “said for his”
“. by Mr Waechter, for which the effect of the decline of the euro will increase this effect. The tax credit for Competitiveness and Employment (CICE) and the pact of responsibility that ease levies on businesses then will “accompany” the two factors, says he.
Dominique Barbet considers him that the IECC has mainly led to “price reductions, terrible effect on public finances, with recipe VAT less. “
Charles-Antoine Schwerer, economist at Asterès, sees GDP growth of 0.3% the only effects of household consumption and government while at the same time investment fall as a whole and that foreign trade made a negative contribution to growth.
“This is the antithesis of what the government is trying to do,” he says.
“The policy of the offer should be realized by a drop in consumption, an increase in the contribution of foreign trade, a recovery of investment. This attempt to change the growth model – moving from growth based on demand and government consumption to growth based on the offer – for now, it is not yet a success, “a- he told AFP.
The investment of non-financial companies stagnated in the third quarter from the previous quarter. With the household and government sectors, total investment in France decreased by 0.6%.
Exports rose 0.5% in July-September, but foreign trade has nevertheless contributed negatively to growth (-0.2 percentage points) .
The return to growth in Q3 was “rather a false good news in that (…) the component that increases the most is public spending, government consumption,” said Nathalie Janson, Professor of Economics at Neoma Business School.
“It would be there in consumption in Europe. Would have in countries that can afford to make growth, consumption, that is to say which countries had fairly balanced public accounts and current account surpluses, consumption reparte “says M . Barbet in a clear allusion to Germany
afp / rp
(AWP / 12.23.2014 1:10 p.m.).
(AWP / 23.12.2014 1:10 p.m.) ^ ->
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