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This new revision is due to a first half of 2014 worse than expected and downside risks, including geopolitical, higher than in spring. “The recovery continues but it is weak and uneven” , summarized the chief IMF economist Olivier Blanchard stressed the need to raise the level of actual and potential growth.
IN 2015, ONLY APPEAR FROM THE UNITED STATES BUSINESS
In the advanced economies, which would grow 1.8% in 2014 and 2.3% in 2015 only the United States seems really out of the woods (+ 2.2% and + 3.1%), while the slowdown in the euro area (+0.8% and +1.3%) and Japan (+ 0.9% and + 0.8%), due to the VAT increase is stronger than anticipated. The IMF has reduced the French growth by 0.4 percentage point from July to 0.4% in 2014 and 0.5 to 1% by 2015 revision was – 0.5 and – 0.2 points for Germany, whose economy would grow 1.4% in 2014 and 1.5% in 2015
See also:. IMF revised downwards its growth forecast for the France
In emerging countries (+ 4.4% and + 5%), the dynamism of Asia (+6.5% and +6.6%), led by China, despite the rebalance its model croisance, contrasts with the kind of languor that seems to have settled in Latin America (+1.3% and +2.2%). Conversely, the least developed countries would show a growth of over 6% this year and in 2015, even as commodity prices is more likely to fall.
IDENTIFYING STRUCTURAL REFORMS
“As global growth was weaker than expected first half of 2014 and that the downside risks have increased, the expected acceleration of growth (in 2015) could again not materialize or be lower than expected “, the IMF acknowledges in its report stressing, in this fragile context, that priority should be given to raising the nominal and potential growth.
In advanced countries, it should “to avoid premature normalization of monetary policy, as well as adjust the pace and composition of fiscal consolidation so as to support the recovery and growth long term, “. As long as domestic demand remains weak, monetary policy should remain accommodative and interest rates low, said Mr Blanchard.
as advanced and emerging countries, has he added, face two challenges: one inherited from the financial crisis, namely the high level of public and private debt and unemployment; the other is that which is expected of the future. “The rate of potential growth have been revised and fuck these prospects deteriorated in turn affect confidence, demand and actual growth of today” , he has observed .
The challenge for all countries is to identify what structural reforms it needs most and which ones are most feasible politically. The urgency for political leaders, is “restore confidence”.
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